The Final Four: NFL Edition

If the NFL Post-season was Las Vegas and I was your bookie, you would already be shopping for another odds-maker to place your bets. I did improve upon my horrendous 1-3 start last weekend by getting 2 out of 4 games correct. As a former history teacher, I know that’s still a failing grade. My one regret was picking the Carolina Panthers. The bandwagon got to me! Like everyone else in Charlotte, however, I was thrown firmly off the bandwagon cart by last weekend’s loss to the San Francisco 49ers. Alas, if I go two for two this weekend my NFL guesstimation record will be back to an impressive .500.  A correct Super Bowl pick would put me over the top and allow me to quietly claim this whole exercise wasn’t a total wash. Unfortunately for me, there are actually games to play and determining who will emerge victorious is no easy task. With that said, let’s get to the picks! This weekend NFL Conference Championship’s final four teams have some perennial stalwarts vying for a chance at Super Bowl glory. The San Francisco 49ers, the New England Patriots and the Denver Broncos all have trophy cases full of championship hardware. The dark horse upstart of the group, the Seattle Seahawks, is the only team that seems out-of-place. Last week, I stated the Seahawks had never been to a Super Bowl. I forgot the boring crush of their 2005 Super Bowl appearance against the Pittsburg Steelers that ended in a 21-10 beating.

New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos (Sunday 3:00PM)

Conference Championship weekend starts with a heavyweight matchup between QB Tom Brady’s Patriots versus QB Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos. It is impossible to talk about this matchup without considering the rivalry between the two star quarterbacks. It has largely been one-sided with Brady taking 10 of 14 games to the house.  Brady has made it to five Super Bowls (winning three). Manning, however, has only made two Super Bowl appearances (winning one). Most sportswriters use these stats to argue for a New England victory. There is one stat that should worry the Patriots.  Brady is only 5-6 in his career against the Broncos.  One of those meetings was a 45-10 beat down in the 2011 playoffs. Needless to say there’s hope Denver fans!

Despite all the historical stats working against Manning, I think he prove all the haters wrong. His team has been my Super Bowl favorite from the beginning for several reasons.  First, Manning has players in both the passing and running game he can count on.  Knowshon Moreno has rushed for over a 1,000 yards this year and has provided balance to an offense that can flat-out throw the ball. Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker have joined for 3,496 receiving yard and 35 touchdowns.  The Broncos will light up New England’s low-rated defense. I’m picking the Broncos because they have exhibited the ability to score at will.

The one thing that should give Denver fans pause, is their defense.  The Broncos rank 27th in the NFL against the pass and Tom Brady exploited this weakness earlier this season to engineer a surprising 34-31 comeback victory.  Brady has led his team to a 12-4 record despite having only one 1,000 yard receiver (Julian Edelman) on the roster.  Brady has proven he can win no matter who lines up next to him.  This prospect should scare the Broncos fans everywhere because no lead is safe against the experienced half-time game planning of Brady and his coach, Bill Belichick  Here’s hoping Denver can score enough points to hold off the Patriots and secure Peyton Manning a third shot at Super Bowl glory.

Final Score:  Broncos 34-Patriots 27

San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 6:30PM)

The Sunday night game, while not as glamorous as the Manning-Brady Bowl, offers another compelling match up.  The 49ers are pushing for a second straight Super Bowl appearance, while the Seahawks have worked hard to legitimize their status as one the NFL’s best.  Both teams split their regular season match-ups and I expect the game’s outcome to go down to the wire.

As I stated last week, the 49ers and QB Colin Kaepernick’s  playoff experience should give them an edge. The 49ers, however, will be facing a team that ranks 1st against the pass and that has the 7th best defense in the NFL.  This means Kaepernick and his sidekick running back Frank Gore have their work cut out for them.  The QB threw 5 picks this season against Seattle.  He has, however, had more success with his legs and  I expect him to run when under pressure.  It’s this running ability (7.5 yard average in the post-season), along with Frank Gore’s knack for popping off big runs like the 51 yard winner in his last match-up against Seattle, that gives the 49ers a slight edge. I also think having Tight End Vernon Davis back in the fold gives Kaepernick a much needed mid-range passing target to compliment the the deep threat ability of Wide Reciever Michael Crabtree. It is no coincidence the team has not lost since Crabtree rejoined its roster.

The Seahawks are in trouble if Russell Wilson continues his lackluster post-season performance.  He only passed for a 108 yards in his last game. Fortunately for him, his poor play was bailed out by Marshawn Lynch’s 140 yard two touchdown performance. Wilson is the X-factor in this game.  If he can overcome the loss of Percy Harvin and make some meaningful passing plays down the field, the Seahawks may have a shot at the Super Bowl. Their defense will keep the game close. Home field advantage will also be huge here because Seattle has one of the loudest stadiums in the league. Even so, I expect the 49ers to make the most noise and will themselves into their second straight Super Bowl.

 Final Score: 49ers 24-Seahawks 21